Assessing forest ecological sustainability through wavelet decomposition and stationarity tests: a comparative analysis of major forest product producers
Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, cilt.9, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 9
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1622811
- Dergi Adı: Frontiers in Forests and Global Change
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, BIOSIS, Directory of Open Access Journals, Zoological Record, Natural Science Collection (ProQuest)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: economic growth, energy economics, forest ecological sustainability, forest management, policy impact analysis, wavelet decomposition
- Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
- Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Introduction – Forest ecosystems are central to environmental sustainability, yet the persistence of forest-specific ecological conditions remains insufficiently explored, particularly across different time horizons. Existing research has predominantly examined CO₂ emissions and aggregate ecological footprint indicators, while relatively limited attention has been devoted to the stochastic properties and frequency-dependent persistence of forest ecological balance (FEB). This study addresses this gap by examining the temporal persistence of FEB in nine major forest product-producing countries—Austria, Brazil, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, and the United States—over the period 1990–2021. Methods – The study combines wavelet decomposition with conventional and Fourier-based stationarity tests to investigate the persistence and dynamics of forest ecological balance across multiple time horizons. Specifically, the KPSS and Fourier KPSS tests are employed to assess whether FEB follows stationary or non-stationary processes, while frequency-domain decomposition is used to distinguish short-, medium-, and long-run dynamics. This framework enables the analysis to identify whether environmental and policy-related shocks generate temporary or persistent effects on forest sustainability. Results – The empirical findings reveal substantial cross-country and frequency-dependent heterogeneity in the stochastic behavior of FEB. For the original series, the Fourier KPSS test identifies stationary FEB processes in China, Germany, and the United States, whereas Austria, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, and Sweden exhibit non-stationary dynamics, indicating that shocks may have more persistent effects in these countries. The frequency-domain results further demonstrate that FEB persistence varies considerably across time horizons. Most countries exhibit non-stationary behavior in the short run, whereas broader evidence of stationarity emerges in the medium run. Long-run dynamics remain heterogeneous, with countries differing substantially in their responses to persistent environmental, economic, and policy-related disturbances. Discussion and Conclusion – The findings indicate that forest ecological sustainability cannot be adequately characterized by a single time-invariant persistence process. The frequency-dependent nature of FEB suggests that the effects of forest-management interventions and external shocks may differ substantially across temporal horizons and national contexts. Accordingly, uniform forest-policy frameworks may not generate comparable outcomes across major forest-producing economies. The study contributes to the literature by providing, to the best of our knowledge, the first frequency-domain assessment of forest ecological balance persistence among major forest product-producing countries and by integrating wavelet decomposition with Fourier-based stationarity testing. Rather than establishing causal relationships, the results provide evidence on the temporal persistence and reversibility of forest ecological dynamics, offering an empirical basis for developing country-specific and time-horizon-specific forest management strategies.