Estimation of Future Number of Electric Vehicles and Charging Stations: Analysis of Sakarya Province with LSTM, GRU and Multiple Linear Regression Approaches


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Yapıcı A. T., Abut N., Yıldırım A.

APPLIED SCIENCES, cilt.15, sa.21, ss.1-23, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 15 Sayı: 21
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3390/app152111462
  • Dergi Adı: APPLIED SCIENCES
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Applied Science & Technology Source, Scopus, Aerospace Database, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Communication Abstracts, INSPEC, Metadex, Directory of Open Access Journals, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-23
  • Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
  • Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Abstract

This study estimates the number of electric vehicles (EVs) and charging stations in Sakarya Province, Türkiye, for 2030 using advanced artificial intelligence time series methods and

statistical approaches. The novelty of the work lies in the application of hyperparameteroptimized LSTM and GRU models alongside Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to a

regional dataset, enabling accurate, data-driven forecasting for regional EV planning. Performance was evaluated using multiple metrics, including R2, MAE, MSE, DTW, RMSE, and

MAPE, with the GRU model achieving the highest reliability and lowest errors (R2 = 0.99, MAE = 0.3, MSE = 2.9, DTW = 123.2, RMSE = 3.1, MAPE = 2.8%) under optimized parameters.

The predicted EV counts and charging station numbers from GRU informed a neighborhood-level allocation of charging stations using Google Maps API, considering local population ratios.

These results demonstrate the practical applicability of deep learning for regional infrastructure planning and provide a replicable framework for similar studies

in other provinces.

Keywords: electric vehicle charging station; artificial intelligence; LSTM model; GRU

model; multiple linear regression