Stochastic properties of Turkish real interest rates


Actual Problems of Economics, vol.154, no.4, pp.375-386, 2014 (Scopus) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 154 Issue: 4
  • Publication Date: 2014
  • Journal Name: Actual Problems of Economics
  • Journal Indexes: Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.375-386
  • Keywords: Half-life, Persistence, Real interest rate, Structural breaks, Turkey, Unit root
  • Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University Affiliated: Yes


Real interest rate, that plays a central role in the decision-making of households, firms and government, has also some important implications on the basic assumptions of a number of financial and macroeconomic models. Time series properties of real interest rate have important policy implications as well. In this paper, we examine the degree of persistence in quarterly seasonally adjusted Turkish real interest rates using a set of econometric procedures. We use the Lee- Strazicich unit root test, modified to capture more than two structural breaks, to test for multiple structural breaks in the mean real interest rate of Turkey and to find extensive evidence of 3 structural breaks. These endogenous structural breaks are significant and meaningful in terms of economic development. We also find that allowing endogenously determined structural breaks in the data-generating process substantially reduces the degree of persistence. In order to have better evidence on the degree of persistence we estimate the half-life of shocks, calculate confidence interval for point estimates and investigate subsamples. Our results show that Turkish real interest rate is stationary and has a mean reverting behavior but is characterized by some degree of persistence. © Korhan Gokmenoglu, Zeynep Karacor, Cagdas Ekinci, 2014.