Time-varying effects of the gold price and the oil price on imports in Turkey

Köse N., Ünal E., Gayaker S.

Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2024 (SSCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/16081625.2023.2298928
  • Dergi Adı: Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, EconLit
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Gold price, Kalman filters, oil price, TVP-VAR-SV model
  • Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The impacts of the gold price, the oil price and the exchange rate on imports are analyzed using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) model. The impulse response functions showed that the impact of oil price shocks on imports continued for a short period of time, whereas that of the gold price became more significant and gave rise to long term effects in later periods. The results reveal important implications for policy makers reducing imports, which stimulates a trade deficit in Turkey.