TÜRKİYE İHRACATININ GEPU ENDEKSİ, REEL DÖVİZ KURU VE SANAYİ ÜRETİM ENDEKSİNE TEPKİSİ: ASİMETRİK BİR ANALİZ
Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, cilt.11, sa.1, ss.349-377, 2026 (ESCI, TRDizin)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 11 Sayı: 1
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Dergi Adı: Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.349-377
- Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
- Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Abstract :This study examines the relationships between Turkey's real total exports and the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) index, real exchange rate, and Industrial Production Index using monthly data from 2013 to 2023. Short- and long-term relationships between the variables were analyzed using the ARDL and NARDL methods. According to the estimation results obtained from the ARDL method, both increases in the GEPU index and increases in the real exchange rate have a decreasing effect on real total exports, while increases in the Industrial Production Index have an increasing effect. According to the estimation results obtained from the NARDL method, positive and negative shocks in the GEPU index and exchange rate increase real total exports. Positive shocks in the Industrial Production Index increase real total exports, while negative shocks decrease real total exports. The findings obtained in this context highlight the importance of economic authorities and policymakers not only taking uncertainty indicators into account in their decision-making processes in the face of growing economic and political uncertainties on a global scale, but also considering asymmetric relationships between variables alongside symmetric ones.