Technology Level Exports, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, and the Role of Government: A Panel Svar Analysis
Journal of the Knowledge Economy, vol.16, no.6, pp.18805-18830, 2025 (Scopus)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Volume: 16 Issue: 6
- Publication Date: 2025
- Doi Number: 10.1007/s13132-024-02389-8
- Journal Name: Journal of the Knowledge Economy
- Journal Indexes: Scopus, IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, EconLit
- Page Numbers: pp.18805-18830
- Keywords: Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, Panel SVAR, Technology-level Export
- Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University Affiliated: Yes
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (global EPU) and the export performance of 58 countries during the period from 2010Q1 to 2021Q4. The study employs a panel structural vector autoregressive model developed by Pedroni (in Econometrics,1(2), 180-206 2013) to analyze the data. Additionally, the research aims to identify the transmission mechanisms between global EPU and exports by considering product dimensions and country characteristics. The findings demonstrate that global EPU has a significant negative impact on total exports. The baseline findings remained unchanged against different GEPU proxies and are also supported by long-term analysis results. Specifically, exports exhibit a negative response to global EPU shocks for products categorized as high-medium-tech and low-medium-tech. However, there is no significant response observed for products classified as high-tech and low-tech. Furthermore, the adverse effects of GEPU shocks on exports are more pronounced in emerging economies compared to advanced economies. In summary, the relationship between global EPU and exports varies depending on the level of product technology and country characteristics. The results of the second-stage regressions—detailed analysis of impulse responses estimated for each country—show that government spending acts as a mitigating factor for the negative impacts of global EPU shocks on exports. Conversely, tax burden and import dependence serve as exacerbating factors. Based on these findings, the paper puts forth important policy recommendations. It suggests that governments should pursue optimal tax policies and allocate resources efficiently to alleviate the unfavorable effects of global EPU shocks on economic activities, including exports.