Unpacking Türkiye’s Trilateral Trade-Off: Export Quality, Growth, and Carbon Emissions
Romaya Journal: Researches on Multidisciplinary Approaches, cilt.5, sa.2, ss.519-531, 2025 (Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 5 Sayı: 2
- Basım Tarihi: 2025
- Dergi Adı: Romaya Journal: Researches on Multidisciplinary Approaches
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.519-531
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Carbon Emission, Economic Growth, Export Quality, Sustainability, Türkiye
- Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Export quality, economic growth, and carbon emissions are key elements in the discourse on sustainable development, particularly for developing economies. This study explores the dynamic relationships among these variables in Türkiye over the period 1963–2023. Using annual data on GDP, the Export Quality Index (EQI), and CO2 emissions, the analysis employs the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (FTY) causality test and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to capture both temporal causality and time– frequency correlations. The research addresses a substantial theoretical challenge, as the nonlinear and time-varying nature of these trilateral relationships cannot be adequately captured by traditional models. By integrating FTY and wavelet analysis, the study offers a robust and flexible framework that overcomes key empirical limitations and provides time-sensitive insights for policymakers aiming to align export-led growth with environmental sustainability. Empirical results show no direct causality between export quality and either GDP or carbon emissions. However, a strong bidirectional causality exists between economic growth and emissions. Wavelet analysis reveals positive, time-varying correlations between export quality and both GDP and emissions, particularly during 1963–1980 and 2000– 2013. These findings suggest that improvements in export quality have contributed to economic growth and environmental pressures during certain periods, though their long-term effects remain complex and context-dependent. Overall, the study highlights the importance of integrating environmental considerations into export-oriented growth strategies and which strategies could be adopted.